2026 H2 International Ocean Freight Market Outlook

1. H1 Freight Rate Review

In the first half of 2026, the global ocean freight market moved in a "down then up" pattern. Rates stayed low at the start of the year under the Spring Festival off-season; entering Q2, restocking demand from Europe and the US combined with continued Red Sea diversions to push rates gradually higher. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) climbed from around 1,800 points at the beginning of the year to about 2,800 points by June.

2. Major Trade Lane Trends

Europe Lane

Under the continued impact of the Red Sea situation, liners keep detouring via the Cape of Good Hope, extending sailing time by about 10 days and tightening capacity supply. Rates for Shanghai–Rotterdam 40HQ hold steady in the USD 3,500–4,200 range, up about 15% year on year versus 2025. We recommend booking 2–3 weeks in advance to secure space.

US Lane

Capacity on the US West Coast market is relatively ample, with Los Angeles 40HQ rates at about USD 2,200–2,800. On the US East Coast, recovering water levels and improved transit capacity at the Panama Canal keep rates in the USD 3,200–3,800 range. Notably, US tariff policy on certain Chinese goods may be adjusted and should be watched closely.

Southeast Asia Route

Driven by the upgraded China–ASEAN FTA and industrial relocation, Southeast Asia cargo volumes keep growing. Rates from Shanghai to Singapore/Port Klang hold steady at USD 600–900 per TEU with ample space. Emerging manufacturing hubs such as Vietnam and Indonesia show strong import demand for raw materials and components.

3. H2 Outlook

The second half is the traditional peak shipping season (August–October Christmas stocking), and rates are expected to rise steadily. Three key variables deserve attention: first, when the Red Sea situation eases (a resumption of Suez transits would release large capacity and rates may fall); second, the strength of restocking in Europe and the US (which underpins demand); third, global new-vessel deliveries (2026 deliveries remain high and could cap the rebound in rates).

Our advice: book at least 3 weeks in advance for peak-season shipments; high-volume customers can negotiate quarterly contracts with us to lock in rates; LCL small batches can be consolidated flexibly to avoid the peak-season scramble for space.